Child Labor as an Operational Lever: Heterogeneous Effects of Interventions in Cocoa Supply Chains

More than 1.5 million children work in cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, despite decades of intervention. We model child labor as one of the levers smallholder households use to balance production, consumption, and finances under harvest uncertainty. The analysis identifies three forces—resource relief, labor productivity, and consumption expansion—that explain why the same program may reduce child labor for some households and increase it for others. Descriptive survey evidence from an NGO partner in Ghana is consistent with the framework, which shows how observable household characteristics can help target interventions.

Major revision at Manufacturing & Service Operations Management